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With the slate of week 12 taking place the same week as Thanksgiving, only 10 games are on the program. We’ll talk about it, have a good time, and prepare you to make some money.
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Largest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite moneyline
New England Patriots (-6.5; -265) against Titans of Tennessee (+215)
Betting trends:
2021 Patriots home record: 2-4
2021 Patriots home record when favored: 2-2
2021 Patriots ATS Record: 7-4
2021 Patriots ATS record when favored: 5-3
2021 Titans road record: 4-1
Titans road record 2021 as underdogs: 3-0
Titans ATS Record 2021: 7-4
Titans’ 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 5-0
What a game we have at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We have the thriving Patriots against a suddenly struggling Titans team. The Titans have just experienced one of the biggest upheavals of the season, as they were beaten by the Texans, 22-13. Meanwhile, the Pats are leading a five-game winning streak that has seen them average 35 points and allow just 10 in that span. Two teams going in completely opposite directions and could really shape the image of the AFC playoffs.
The Titans have been a very profitable team to bet on this season. The 5-0 ATS record as an underdog is remarkable and they made those games count. In those games as underdogs, they have averaged 14.3 points. In fact, before both games slipped, they covered and won outright against the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams before falling to the Saints and Texans (as favorites). So what is happening to this team? Have injuries finally caught up? Julio Jones and Derrick Henry will be absent AJ Brown ($ 7,100) faces a chest injury. If Brown were out, the Titans would be missing three players who account for 52.2% of the team’s total touches. The Patriots are still famous for picking the best team option and at this point who would it even be?
Speaking of the Patriots, this team has been a defensive freak lately. Holding opposing teams to just 13 points overall in the last three games will earn you that nickname. They’ve also been under a lot of pressure on the quarterback, registering at least two sacks in four of their last five games. This is not good news for Ryan Tannehill ($ 6,100) which has been under pressure on 33% of its losses. Under pressure, Tannehill is averaging one of the lowest yards per attempt among qualifying quarterbacks at 5.3 yards. He’s also tied for the league lead in steals thrown while under pressure with six. Can you guess which defense leads the league in threesome interceptions? I don’t think I need to tell you, do I? Unless we see a total of 180 from the Titans at this point, that’s the Patriots for me and one of the best 6 point teasers you can get on Sunday at his current count of -6.5.
Other notable favorites: Cincinnati Bengals (-210; -4.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+175)
Best DraftKings Sports Bets Projected total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3; -155) to Indianapolis Colts (+135) Over / Under: 52.5
Betting trends:
2021 Buccaneers road record: 2-3
2021 Buccaneers road record among favorites: 2-3
2021 Buccaneers Record Over / Under: 5-5
2021 Buccaneers Record Over / Under as favorites: 5-5
2021 Colts home record: 3-3
Colts 2021 home record as underdogs: 0-2
2021 Colts Record Over / Under: 7-4
Colts 2021 Over / Under record as outsiders: 5-2
It’s a total that I really struggle with. The Colts have been one of the best teams in the league to hit the top and have done so in four of their last five games. That said, they face a team that has done so in just one of their last five games. The Bucs covered the surplus in the first three games of the season, but have only gone 2-5 with the surplus since. We now have a total of 52.2, which has been trending higher since Wednesday afternoon. On Tuesday it came down to 50, which shouldn’t be seen again. Having said that, I think the sub is at stake at the current total of 52.5.
The Colts’ overall success can be attributed to Jonathan Taylor ($ 9,100). When a running back scores three touchdowns in a game, let alone five, it turns heads. The unfortunate part is that Taylor should have received a lot of love much sooner. He’s posted five games averaging 5.5 YPC or better this season. All of those games have seen him carry the ball no less than 15 times, except one. He’s also had great success against strong defenses like the Bills, Jaguars and Ravens. The Bucs come into this game with a very solid run defense, but that’s not something Taylor hasn’t been able to overcome before. Needless to say, this team is allowing an average of 3.5 YPC, 56 rushing yards and just four rushing touchdowns. Only one team, the Chicago Bears, has totaled more than 100 rushing yards. If the Colts continue to use Taylor as much as they have, which is 53 carries in their last two games, this will continue. Tom Brady ($ 7,600) off the field and slow down this game. At that current total, I think the downside is the game here.
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This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over / under.
Teams against spread:
Top ATS Teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Green Bay Packers | 9-2 | 0.7 |
| Titans of Tennessee | 7-4 | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7-4 | 5.5 |
| New England Patriots | 7-4 | 8.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-4 | 1.1 |
The worst ATS teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| New York Jets | 2-8 | -6.9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-6 | -4.4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-6 | -1.3 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4-6 | -0.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4-6 | -8.2 |
Plus / minus team records:
Best team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7-4 | 3.8 |
| New York Jets | 6-4 | 5.5 |
| The Los Angeles Rams | 5-4-1 | -0.8 |
| Titans of Tennessee | 6-5 | -0.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6-5 | 2 |
Worst team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-8 | -4.9 |
| Denver Broncos | 2-8 | -5.4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3-8 | -6.3 |
| New York Giants | 3-6 | -3.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3-6 | 0.5 |
Target report
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 12 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 12 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | FR | 11.6 | 9.8 |
| Keenan Allen | LAKE | LAIR | 10.6 | 7.6 |
| Davante Adams | FR | LAR | 10.6 | 9.2 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | CIN | 10.6 | 7.5 |
| Dj moore | AUTO | MIA | 9.3 | 7.4 |
| Justin jefferson | MIN | SF | 8.9 | 10.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | MIN | 8.8 | 11.3 |
| Brandin cooks | HOU | NYJ | 8.7 | 7.6 |
| Sterling shepard | NYG | RPS | 8.6 | 7.5 |
| Jaylen waddles | MIA | AUTO | 8.5 | 6.6 |
Quarterback to build around
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, $ 6,600 – Despite scoring DKFP 38.28 last week against the Steelers, Herbert saw his salary drop by $ 100 for Week 12 against the Broncos. It’s been a bit of a hit and miss season for the second quarterback season, but it’s a fantastic game to keep that momentum going. The Broncos secondary is a far cry from what we saw at the start of the season and it’s a team you can aim against. The Broncos Pass rush is also almost non-existent, which will suit Herbert well. Working with a clean pocket, Herbert has an adjusted completion percentage of 82% (T-5th) 8.1 YPA (9th) and 19 (3rd) of his 22 pass touchdowns. The -2.5 gap in favor of the Chargers indicates it could be a close game, which plays in Herbert’s favor as the Chargers spend 64.1% of their offensive plays (5th).
Wide receiver to pair it with
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, $ 7,400 – Allen regained his role as WR1 in this offense. After Mike Williams ($ 5,700) started the season as Herbert’s number one target, Williams has averaged just 5.5 targets in the last four games while Allen is at 12. In those games Allen has crossed twice as much. 100 meters but only scored once. This week he will shoot a cover against CB Kyle Fuller, when he operates out of the slot. Fuller was targeted against 38 times allowing 20 receptions (52.6% catch rate) 16.3 YPR and three touchdowns against. Among the qualifying corners, the 16.3 YPR is one of the highest averages in the league, which is currently held by CB Marshon Lattimore at 19.8. With the volume Allen is receiving in this game, he has a good chance of being one of the best receivers of the week.
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